At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced a disheartening setback, squandering a three-run lead to ultimately fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. This latest loss has brought the Twins' struggles into sharp focus, particularly as they continue their downward trajectory over the past several weeks.
The critical blow came in the bottom of the eighth inning when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo. This event marks yet another disappointing chapter for a team that has now lost 18 of their last 27 games. Such dwindling performance has placed them precariously in the third AL wild-card spot, with their lead shrinking to just 1 1/2 games.
The once-promising postseason odds for the Twins have significantly declined. As of September 5, FanGraphs estimated their postseason chances at 95.4%, but that figure has now waned to 76.4%. A contributing factor to this deterioration has been their inability to consistently generate offense. In 12 of those last 27 games, the Twins failed to score more than three runs, a dismal output for a team seeking playoff contention.
Offensive Struggles
The Twins’ batting statistics during this rocky stretch underscore their offensive woes. Collectively, the team has batted .236, with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Particularly alarming is their performance when the bases are empty, where they're hitting just .272, making them the fourth worst in this crucial scenario.
Max Kepler's expected return injects a glimmer of hope. Yet, the return of a single player might not be enough to overcome systemic issues plaguing the team. “We have to find ourselves as a team. We’ve been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we’re going to do this,” said manager Rocco Baldelli.
Pitching Problems
The bullpen, initially a sturdy pillar for the Twins with a 3.84 ERA and a tenth-place ranking in win probability added (+3.41) over their first 123 games, has faltered significantly. In the recent 27-game span, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, and they now bear the league's worst win probability added (-2.75).
This downturn is compounded by the heavy workload. The Twins have played 17 games in the last 18 days, leaving the team stretched thin. "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," expressed Griffin Jax, encapsulating the fatigue felt throughout the roster.
The starting rotation has also faced its share of struggles, posting a 6.07 ERA in this period and averaging only 4.38 innings per start. The mid-relief and closing scenarios have seen the Twins losing or finding themselves tied in critical late-game situations far too often. They had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in two other instances.
Management's Response
In an effort to bolster their ranks, the Twins have recently claimed left-hander Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin brings a 4.86 ERA from his 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," said Derek Falvey.
Chasing the Wild Card
As they cling to their wild-card spot, the Twins find themselves looking over their shoulders at the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, both just two games behind. Crucially, however, the Twins hold key tiebreakers over both teams, which could prove pivotal as the race tightens.
Baldelli recognizes the urgency of the situation: "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together." This sentiment encapsulates the pressing need for cohesion and consistent performance across the board.
Adding to the complexity, the Tigers have been on a rampage, going 23-10 in their last 33 games. Meanwhile, the Twins must leverage any advantage they hold, including the recent promising performances by Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who are a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month.
Pablo López summarized the precarious situation aptly: "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow." Indeed, each game moving forward carries heightened stakes as the Twins strive to find their true form and make a decisive push toward the postseason.