A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have won 27 out of 28 series. The only exception occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Of those 28 series, a staggering 20 have ended in sweeps.
The Florida Panthers are attempting to sweep the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games back in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to send the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, history is not on their side. Of the 28 series where a team has led 3-0, 25 have ended in no more than five games. Despite these daunting odds, the Oilers still believe in their ability to turn things around.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers find themselves in a troubling predicament, now sporting a 0-5-0 record against the Panthers this season. Edmonton showed some fight by pushing in the third period on Thursday, with greasy goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod trimming Florida's lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, no less—in a must-win game, against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Their undoing came during a regrettable 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida netted three goals. Edmonton had just tied the game at 1-1 with a Warren Foegele breakaway goal. However, a turnover by Skinner allowed forward Eetu Luostarinen to set up Vladimir Tarasenko for a goal, deflating the crowd at 9:12. Florida extended their lead to 3-1 at 13:57, thanks in part to robust forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk, which forced a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett capitalized on for his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that the Oilers allowed to start from deep within their attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Mistakes have been piling up for Edmonton, while goals from their star players have not. Players like Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have managed to score. However, the team's five leading scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have gone silent.
These five players also run the Oilers' power play, which has been powerless this series against Florida's penalty kill, which is a perfect 10-for-10. Edmonton's power play entered the series clicking at over 37%, the best in the postseason. Though McDavid has contributed with assists on three of Edmonton's four goals in the series, he is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason. The only other player to achieve this was Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. Unfortunately, the other key players have yet to score a single point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
The Oilers' stars are taking responsibility for their shortcomings. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," admitted Draisaitl. He continued, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Stuart Skinner echoed these sentiments, saying, "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Head Coach Kris Knoblauch remains optimistic, stating, "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room." He added, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Reflecting on the game, Skinner added, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl summed up the challenge ahead, "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."